A cheaper dollar: the impact in your business and foreign operations
VIIO
Publish date: 8/10/2026
Last updated: 8/27/2026
The Colombian peso has not been this strong in years.
This week in August 2026, the TRM is around COP 3,125 per dollar, a level not seen in years. So far this year, the peso has also posted one of its strongest appreciations on record. Good news, partially: it all depends on where you stand.
If your business earns revenue abroad, there is another, more useful question to ask. And it is an uncomfortable one: how dependent is your business on dollar volatility, something no one can control? It is worth taking a closer look.
The essentials, quickly
This week in August 2026, the dollar remains at multi-year lows, with the TRM at around COP 3,125.
Forecasts for the end of 2026 range from COP 2,800 (Alianza Valores) to around COP 3,630 (Citi analyst survey). No one knows for sure.
If your business operates in foreign currencies, the key is not predicting the TRM. It is reducing your exposure and deciding when to convert.
Why is the dollar falling in Colombia?
It did not happen overnight. The decline is part of a trend that accelerated toward the end of May, moving through levels of COP 3,600, COP 3,400 and COP 3,300.
What drove it? Several things at the same time: a 12% interest rate from Banco de la República attracting capital in search of returns, record remittance inflows, high oil prices and, according to several analysts, the political shift following the elections and expectations around the incoming government's fiscal plans. The TRM eventually reached its lowest level in more than six years.
What makes Colombia unusual is that it is moving against the broader trend. While many currencies have barely moved against the dollar, the Colombian peso has gained significant ground. That is why so many analysts describe its performance as unusual.
Felipe Campos, Head of Investment and Strategy at Alianza Valores, told Infobae that almost no currency has outperformed the dollar this year, and even the few that have, including oil-linked currencies, have appreciated far less than the peso. In other words, this is not a global wave. It is mostly local.
How low could it go? Even the experts disagree
This is where it gets interesting. For the same year-end period, market experts are forecasting very different outcomes.
In his most optimistic scenario for the peso, Campos sees the exchange rate falling below COP 3,000 and approaching a floor of COP 2,800. That, however, depends on the new government delivering on its fiscal plan. Citi's analyst survey, by contrast, places the TRM at around COP 3,527 by the end of 2026: a rebound. Credicorp Capital, meanwhile, estimates that the dollar may already be near its floor, at around COP 3,230–3,250 for the second half of the year.
Same December. Three views: COP 2,800, COP 3,240, COP 3,630.
Who will be right? We do not know. If even the experts cannot agree, building your strategy around a single forecast is, ultimately, a bet.
Who benefits, and who feels the pressure?
A strong peso does not affect everyone equally.
Exporters are probably among those who feel it the most. Especially agricultural sectors such as coffee, flowers, bananas, palm oil, sugar and avocados. They have been warning for some time that the peso's appreciation is hurting their competitiveness. And the impact is not trivial: an ANIF sensitivity analysis, using data from the Federación Nacional de Cafeteros, estimates that a COP 100 move in the exchange rate can change the value of coffee exports by around COP 34 billion, approximately USD 11 million.
Freelancers, consultants and remote teams paid in dollars face a similar problem. Same work, fewer pesos when they convert.
On the other side, importers and businesses with USD-denominated costs get some breathing room. Inputs, machinery, technology and raw materials all become cheaper. Businesses paying for software, cloud services or overseas suppliers see their costs fall.
What about businesses on both sides?
There are more of them than you might think. They earn in dollars and also spend in dollars. At that point, the issue is no longer just the exchange rate. It is how the financial operation is structured.
The blind spot: being forced to convert
The most fragile position is not holding dollars. It is not holding pesos either. It is being forced to convert everything immediately at the day's TRM. When the dollar is cheap, that obligation forces you to sell your dollars precisely when they are worth less in pesos.
Take a digital services company. It invoices international clients in dollars. It also pays for servers, software licenses and a couple of contractors in dollars. If its bank forces it to convert every incoming payment into pesos and then buy dollars again to cover those costs, it loses money on every conversion. Twice. For a movement that, in practical terms, did not need to happen at all.
In other words, the problem was never simply a cheaper dollar. The problem was not being able to pay dollar expenses with dollar income, while converting only what is actually needed to operate locally.
That is where having an account that lets your business operate directly in dollars starts to make sense. If you receive payments in USD and also pay suppliers in that currency, you can avoid several conversions that, over time, end up costing money.
Five things to keep in mind
Beyond the forecasts, these are the things worth looking at:
Look at your net exposure. How much comes in and how much goes out in dollars every month. That balance determines whether a cheaper dollar helps or hurts you far more than any headline about the TRM.
Natural hedging is the simplest lever. Matching income and expenses in the same currency reduces exposure without complex instruments or a crystal ball.
Watch the small costs. Each spread may look marginal. Added up over a year, they are not.
Peso liquidity is non-negotiable.
And accounting and foreign exchange obligations are specific to each company. Requirements involving the DIAN and Banco de la República's foreign exchange regime vary depending on the case. Review them with your finance team.
Questions business owners and finance teams keep asking
Why is the dollar falling in Colombia in 2026? Because of a combination of factors: a 12% interest rate from Banco de la República, record remittance inflows, higher oil prices and the political shift following the elections. The peso is experiencing one of its strongest appreciations of the century and, this week in August, the TRM is around COP 3,125.
Should I keep my dollars or convert them into pesos? It depends. If you also have costs in dollars, paying them directly in USD can help you avoid unnecessary conversions. Converting into pesos should respond to your cash flow needs, not to a forecast. And yes: discuss it with your advisor.
What is a business dollar account? An account that allows a company to receive, hold and pay in dollars, all in one place. In VIIO's case, it includes a local US account for receiving USD payments, payments to suppliers abroad and fund disbursement with settlement in COP or USD, all managed from Colombia without the traditional banking intermediaries.
A dollar at multi-year lows is not something you manage from a headline. Or from the most eye-catching forecast.
You manage it through the structure your business uses to handle foreign currencies. One that works today, with a strong peso, and also when the exchange rate turns around.
At the end of the day, you do not need to predict the TRM. You just need to depend on it less.
VIIO is a Colombian platform that offers a business dollar account. It allows businesses to receive international payments, pay suppliers and employees abroad, and disburse funds with settlement in COP or USD, all from Colombia, with clear costs and without the traditional banking intermediaries.
A note from our team: this content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, foreign exchange or investment advice. Before moving your funds, speak with your accountant or trusted advisor, who understands your situation better than any article.